Apple Orders 10 Million Tablets? Sound Fishy

Today's Apple tablet rumor has an optimistic zing to it--and maybe that's a great way to close out a dreary 2009. According to a blog post by former Google China president Kai-Fu Lee, Apple plans to produce nearly 10 million tablets in the still-unannounced product's first year. Lee worked for Apple more than ten years ago and left Google earlier this year, according to published reports.

That figure--10 million--seems awfully high for a consumer product that's charting unknown territory. The tablet (or iSlate or iPad, if you prefer) would target an untapped market, if rumors of the device's form and functionality are true. True, a few tablet-style browser/media players are either already on the market or are arriving shortly, but none has garnered anywhere near the attention of the Apple tablet.

I did some checking at Apple's site to see what sales figures were like for the iPhone in its first year. Here's the breakdown:

Q3 2007: 270,000 units

Q4 2007: 1,119,000

Q1 2008: 2,315,000

Q2 2008: 1,703,000

Add up the quarterly numbers, and Apple sold just over 5.4 million iPhones in the handset's first year. (I also tried to get first-year numbers for the iPod, which launched in November 2001, but Apple's financial reports didn't break down iPod sales back then.)

If Lee's blog post is to be believed, Apple plans to sell nearly twice as many tablets as it did iPhones in the product's first year.

Call me a pessimist, but that's hard to believe. Remember, the iPhone was entering a well-established cell phone market when it debuted in 2007. People had used cell phones for years. They liked cell phones and understood their value. Apple's pitch back then: The iPhone is better than any other cell phone on the market. Millions of customers agreed, and the rest is history.

The tablet? Well, that's a much harder sell. The iSlate is sort of a big iPod, but not really. It performs a lot of notebook-like functions, but it's not really a notebook either.

My point is that Apple will need to educate its target market. And that's why I seriously doubt the company expects to move 10 million tablets within a year.

Then again, Apple has proven the pundits wrong before. What do you think?

Google Chrome netbook specs leaked?

There’s a rumor going around that Google isn’t just developing an operating system for netbooks (which we already know is true), but that company is also in the process of developing an actual netbook. While Google isn’t exactly known as a hardware maker, this rumor falls into the plausible category, since Google is also widely reported to be developing a cellphone running Android OS. And as Apple has demonstrated time and again, if you want your operating system to run smoothly on hardware, your best option is to design the hardware.

This weekend the rumors got a little more interesting as British site IB Times listed the rumored specs of the upcoming Google netbook:

• Display: 10.1 inch HD ready multit-touch screen
• CPU: ARM-based processor
• Storage: 64GB SSD
• Memory: 2GB
• Connectivity: WiFi, Bluetooth, 3G, Ethernet
• I/O: USB, webcam, 3.5mm audio jack, flash card reader
• OS: Google Chrome OS

IB Times also says the netbook could be subsidized by wireless carriers and sell for under $300.
All told, it sounds like one heck of a machine. And to be honest, I’d say it’s far more powerful a device than you need for running web-apps alone. Then again, anyone who has spent some time watching movies, editing documents, and performing other tasks in a web browser can tell you that more RAM and memory is always better than less. But I wouldn’t be surprised if people picked up this netbook in hopes of hacking it to run a different flavor or Linux or of tweaking the open source Chrome operating system to run native apps instead of the web-only apps Google plans to offer.
When Google officials introduced the operating system recently, they stated that netbooks designed to run Chrome OS would be larger than today’s netbooks and have full sized keyboards. At the time, I figured this meant the netbooks would have screens larger than 10 inches, but it’s possible that Google reps, like a lot of other people, still think of netbooks as 7 to 9 inch devices with cramped keyboards even though the vast majority of mini-laptops released in the last two years are much larger and more comfortable to type on. Anyway, if the rumored specs are true, the Google netbook will have a 10 inch screen and likely won’t be much larger than the average netbook on the market today.
Of course, we’re still dealing with rumors and speculation here, so please pass the salt and I’ll take a grain. I suggest you do the same.

Google Chrome OS-based netbook buzz gets bigger

The buzz about the impending launch of Google's very own Chrome OS-based netbook refuses to die down with many industry watchers claiming that the internet giant has tapped at least one hardware manufacturer to make the netbook.

According to several tech blogs, including TechCrunch, the Mountain View-based company has sent RFPs (Request for Proposal) to several hardware manufacturers, including two prominent companies based in Far East Asia.
No real word on the hardware specs yet but there are rumours that Google's netbook will sport a chipset from Nvidia's Tegra line and it will be powered by an ARM CPU (which reportedly performs better than Intel Atom and consumes less power).
Meanwhile, sources close to the development said Google is keen on subsidising the device and selling it directly to consumers. However, it has not totally dismissed the idea of tying up with one or more network operators, who could sell the netbook with a bundled plan.
Google's Chrome OS was unveiled last month and it generated tremendous interest as it heralded Google's maiden entry in the OS market, which is currently dominated by Microsoft. Incidentally, Google's browser offering by the same name has failed to impact the browser market, which is currently dominated by Internet Explorer (again a Microsoft product).
So will Google Chrome OS be able to do what Chrome browser could not?
Not likely, claims tech analysts, as unlike Windows OS, Chrome OS will be compatible to a limited number of hardware. For instance, it will run only on a flash drive and not on traditional hard drives.
According to Google's vice president of product management Sundar Pichai, it increases boot-time speed and makes it more stable and secure but tech analysts claim that Google has an ulterior motive - by shunning hard drives Google gets to keep your data on its servers, which it can be used to target ads.
Meanwhile, word is out that the Google netbook will not hit the market before 2010 holiday season.
What do you think, folks? Will Google netbook end up as another rumour? Or is Google serious about taking on Microsoft? Will Chrome OS be Google's cash cow? Leave your comments below.